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换位思考:如果人们现在才发明书本?

2007-01-27 15:38:16 发表于英语学习 本文链接: 换位思考:如果人们现在才发明书本?

Why do some technologies perpetually getting touted as the “next big thing” fail to ever make a dent in the marketplace? Perhaps part of the answer is that often they’re not nearly as disruptive as their advocates make them out to be. To help think about this question, Vinnie Marchandani points to an interesting mental exercise proposed by Harvard Business School professor Andrew McAfee which he calls the “flip test”:

为什么一些技术被大力的渲染成”划时代”的东西,却没有能在市场取得一点效果呢?也许其中的原因之一是因为他们的思想被他们想要极力推荐的热情给掩盖了。为了更好的说明这个问题,哈佛商学院Andrew教授建议他的学生Vinnie Marchandani提出了一个有趣心理测试,这个测试被称为”翻转测试”。

Let’s say the world has only e-books, then someone introduces this technology called ‘paper.’ It’s cheap, portable, lasts essentially forever, and requires no batteries. You can’t write over it once it’s been written on, but you buy more very cheaply. Wouldn’t that technology come to dominate the market?

假设这个世界仅仅只有电子书籍,某一天,有个人发明了纸张这样一个技术,这个东西很轻便、携带方便、能使用很久,并且不需要供电。一旦写了东西之后就不能再次写入了,但是如果你买得很多的话也非常便宜。这样的一项技术将会主导市场么?

Thinking about it that way, it’s really not that surprising that e-books have yet to take off, despite all of the hype surrounding them. If you didn’t know which one came first, paper might look revolutionary and disruptive. Similar tests could probably be constructed for other next big things, like videophones or even alternative fuels (“Imagine a world where we recharge our cars and only get 6 hours of drive time, and then someone invents petroleum-based gasoline…”). This kind of test isn’t meant to answer these questions, or end all discussions, but it’s worthy to think about when evaluating the prospects of a new technology.

用这种方式来思考,不难理解为什么电子书籍尚未成熟,尽管周围的人们都在大肆宣扬它。如果你不知道谁将会主导市场,纸张也许是看起来更加有革命性和突破性的。同样的测试也可以用在其它的技术身上,比如视频电话甚至是可替代能源,(想象一下我们给我们的汽车充一次电,接下来可以开动6小时,突然有那么一天,有人发明了汽油……)。这种测试不表示可以用来回答类似的问题或者结束类似的讨论,但是当我们在评估新技术的前景的时候可以用类似的方法来参考。

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发表于 2007-01-27 15:38:16 目录:英语学习 [RSS 2.0] 您可以评论. Pinging 不可用.
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